Australia are anxiously awaiting scans on captain Pat Cummins with fears growing he could miss part of the Ashes.
Cummins underwent what had been described as a routine scan on his back last week, but it is understood to have revealed a problem that will need his workload to be carefully managed. He has not played since July when Australia beat West Indies and was last week rested for a T20 tour to New Zealand before the Ashes.
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Sources are privately admitting the problem is worse than expected and he is a doubt for the start of the Ashes series. Even if fit for the first Test, his workload will need managing throughout the five-match series that starts in Perth on November 21.
In his absence, Steve Smith would return to captain against England. Cummins’ absence would put a huge workload on Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood to carry the attack, while Scott Boland would step in as first reserve. All-rounder Cameron Green has recently returned after back surgery last year but is still building up his bowling.
Cameron Green has played four Tests since recovering from back surgery but has not bowled a ball in Test cricket since March 2024 – Action Images/Paul Childs
Australia’s fast-bowling choices are thin outside the main squad with injuries already ruling out Lance Morris and Spencer Johnson while Jhye Richardson will miss the start of their season.
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Cummins had a long history of back injuries in his younger days, missing almost six years after his Test debut in 2011. But in recent years his body has adapted to the gruelling demands of Test cricket. He has become Australia’s talismanic captain, leading them to World Test Championship victory and the 50-over World Cup, playing multiple formats without missing many matches.
Australia’s management remain optimistic he will be fit in time for the Ashes but it will be difficult for him to play every Test in an intense five-match series that will be over within 48 days while managing a back problem. With 309 Test wickets at an average of 22, Cummins’ class as a bowler, with his pace and relentless accuracy, makes him a match-winner for Australia on his own.
Losing him would be a huge blow, not just for his bowling, but also for his leadership. Smith has stepped in before, and has vast captaincy experience, but is not the consistent run machine of the past. It would be a huge boost for England’s chances if Cummins was not available for all five Tests but his absence would be a big loss for the series, which promises to be a blockbuster if both teams are able to pick their best players.
Battle of who can stay fit between Cummins and Stokes could decide Ashes
England have long admired how Australia keep their fast bowlers fit and firing for Test cricket and this winter’s Ashes may well be decided simply by which ones stay standing for long enough.
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It is particularly true of the two captains: Ben Stokes and Pat Cummins. It is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday that Cummins has a “hot spot” on his back and will need careful management before the Ashes series to ensure he leads Australia when the series starts in Perth.
Meanwhile, Stokes is continuing his recovery from a torn shoulder muscle and preparing his battered body for one last Ashes trip.
It would be a hugely disappointing blow if either were to miss the Ashes or be incapacitated for large periods of the series because of their star quality. The showdown between England’s Alpha male leader and Australia’s climate change-campaigning captain will be a thread throughout the series.
It has to be said that Australia and Cummins have a much better record when it comes to protecting their captain and listening to medical advice. The gambler instinct in Stokes and Brendon McCullum will always control the moment. Stokes bowled through the pain at Old Trafford hoping he would deliver the knockout blow to win the series but failed to do so and was ruled out of the Oval Test a few days later that India won to draw the series.
The absence of either Cummins or Ben Stokes through injury would be a major blow for the Ashes as a spectacle – Getty Images/Ryan Pierse
In Hamilton in December, with England struggling, Stokes ripped his hamstring for the second time trying to stir his team into a comeback. He said he had learned from that but on the field there is still nobody really willing to give him the tap on the shoulder when he is on a one-man mission. It is thrilling to watch him on a roll but England cannot afford Stokes working himself into an early flight home from the Ashes.
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There just seems more controlled decision-making in the Australia camp and Cummins is more likely to take on advice of others in the heat of a big moment. Managing the two captains will be a factor in the overall result.
Australia have more depth too. Not necessarily in their bowling stocks, which look thin with injuries already ruling out a couple of back-up bowlers. But in Steve Smith they have a cricketer with plenty of captaincy experience and who is tactically smarter than Cummins.
England will fall back on Ollie Pope, who has never looked comfortable as Stokes’s replacement, or decide to make Harry Brook vice-captain based on his white-ball experiences.
Cummins will probably be fit for Perth and there is a long nine-day gap to the second Test allowing plenty of time for rest but the stamina that has seen him stay fit for all five Tests every Ashes series since 2016-17 (he missed one game due to Covid exposure in 2020-21) is fading at the age of 32 and that can only be good news for England. That is as long as Stokes is still fully able to exploit it.
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